Shabbiness is no surprise in a steel-making region that has been struggling for decades. But the capacity crowd that turned out here for Barack Obama recently — and the one that greeted Hillary Rodham Clinton when she campaigned in nearby Hammond — are signs of its political vitality.

The Democratic nominating contest is now centered in North Carolina and Indiana, which hold primaries May 6. To win Indiana, taking the northwestern region — the five counties nearest Chicago — is critical. There are more votes here than any region in the state, excluding Indianapolis.

The issue that dominates the presidential campaign is the one that has ruled life here for years: how to survive in a manufacturing economy that has been gutted, in many voters' views, by foreign trade agreements.

No wonder Clinton is headed to Gary on Friday in her third trip to the state's northwestern corner.

On paper, this region looks as if it would favor Obama — but there are obstacles here for both candidates, including mastering the challenges of an area with a large proportion of black and Latino voters and a heavy union presence.

A primary player for the first time since 1984, Indiana could truly be up for grabs. Seven state polls since February show Clinton leading in four and Obama in three. Obama leads 50%-45% in the most recent survey, released April 11 by SurveyUSA for Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne.

"There hasn't been a competitive presidential primary in so long, we're all kind of stabbing in the dark on this stuff," says Robby Mook, Clinton's state director.

In the 1st Congressional District, which includes four of the five northwestern Indiana counties, about 18% of voters are black, compared with 8% of voters statewide. Gary, whose mayor has endorsed Obama, is 84% black.

Obama's speech on race, which he gave March 18 in Philadelphia in an effort to clarify his relationship with his former pastor Jeremiah Wright, won over another pastor, Gary voter Dwight Mobley. "He effectively communicated how African-Americans feel about where we are in American society," Mobley said. "We don't have to deny who we are to be Americans."

Northwestern Indiana also has significant numbers of Hispanics, who now make up 10% of the 1st District vs. 3% statewide. In previous primaries, Hispanic voters mostly backed Clinton.

"People identify Hillary with Bill, and everybody likes Bill," Eliza Vela, an Obama volunteer and school administrator from Hammond, says about voter ties to Clinton and her husband, the former president.

Labor unions add another twist. The teachers union in Hammond, the region's second-largest city, broke with its national union to endorse Obama. "I do not think (Clinton) can win in the fall," says the local's president, Patrick O'Rourke.

Voters here have seen Obama's swift rise close at hand, by watching Chicago TV stations. The Clinton campaign says that's an advantage it will have to overcome. Obama also has been reminding voters of his work in the 1980s as a community organizer on Chicago's South Side, badly hit by steel layoffs just as Indiana was. His first state ad pictured him in front of a shuttered factory.

But Clinton, a two-term first lady and two-term senator, is hardly unknown. She has the backing of Sen. Evan Bayh, who has been mentioned as a possible running mate. In South Bend, where manufacturing layoffs also have hurt the local economy, real estate broker Kathy Platt said Clinton will do more to create jobs. "I'm a feminist. I've been working for a long time on this," she said.

Some voters are conflicted. "I admire her, what she's accomplished. I admire his plans and his inspiration," says Sharon Leavell, 69, a retired teacher. "I'm hating this decision." James Johnson, 60, a steel mill inspector, has seen both candidates. At Clinton's South Bend appearance, he said, "I was the only black person standing in the line."

Until recently, Johnson supported Clinton: "I thought she'd walked many miles in her husband's shoes." But her vow to compete until all the primaries end on June 3 strikes him as selfish, he said. "Don't try to destroy the party on the way out." So he has switched his support. "Of course I love Obama. I'm pleased and tickled and in awe that so many people love him." And, he says, "Black people have waited so long."

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